Mihail Păduraru
SISTEMIC AND SINERGIC COMPONENTS
PLANING
INTELLIGENCE NEEDS
KIT – KEY INTELINGENCE TOPICS
IT IS IMPORTANT WHAT WE KNOW BUT MORE IMPORTANT IS WHAT WE DON’T KNOW
FORMULATE QUESTIONS
WHERE CAN WE GET THE INFORMATION WE NEED ?
OSINT HUMINT
1 – SUBJECT
WHO ? WHAT ?
2 – MODUS OPERANDI
HOW ?
3 – PLACE
WHERE ?
4 – TIME
WHEN ?
5 – PURPOSE
WHY ?
ACKOFF – OPERATION RESEARCHER AND SYSTEM THINKING PROFESSOR , DIVIDE THINKING AS :
1. DATES – SIMBOLS
2. INFORMATIONS – WHO ? ,WHAT ? ,WHERE ? ,WHEN ?
3. KNOWLEDGE – APLICATION OF DATES AND INFORMATION – HOW ?
4.UNDERSTANDING – WHY?
5.JUDGEMENT / ANTICIPATION
FIRST 4 REFEER / BELONG TO THE PAST – WHAT WAS DONE OR WHAT IT IS KNOW AND THE LAST ONE BELONGS TO THE FUTUTRE AND NEEDS VISION
TEHNIQUES OF ANALYSIS
SWOT
PESTLE
ACH
MATRIX CALCULATION
Analyst must to formulate short and concise quotes which will answer to THRUE or FALSE , filled with FACTS and EVIDENCES which finally will validate his reasoning
He must focus more on the evidence that will reject his hypothesis instead of those that will confirm
VERY IMPORTANT – do not fill the missing pieces with personal opinions
PRODUCT
PRODUCT MUST BE ADAPT TO THE PERSONALITY OF THE DECISION MAKER
MUST BE SHORT – CONCISE – COMPREHENSIVE
EASY TO READ / TO UNDERSTAND
MUST CONTAINE ELEMENTS OF PROBABILITY
MUST CONTAIN ELEMENTS OF LOGICAL ARGUMENTATION :
if A + B = C then may be possible…D
if A = C and B = C then A = B
FIELD OPERATIONS / OODA LOOP
OPERATIONAL INTELLINGENCE – CAPACITY AND INTENTIONS OF POSSIBLE THREATS
STRATEGIC INTELIGENCE – LONG TERM
TACTIC INTELIGENCE – SHORT TERM
AWARNESS , INDICATORS OF THREATS
THREAT = intention + capability
RISK = threat + vulnerability
